For nearly a decade, the defining feature of Donald Trump’s political career has been the immovability of his base. No matter the scandal, the indictment, or the headline, the “MAGA” coalition stood as a monolithic block of support. But a new poll suggests that what prosecutors and political rivals could not do, the price of groceries is finally achieving: the erosion of the President’s bedrock.
The latest NBC News Decision Desk poll reveals a startling trend. As President Trump nears the end of his first year back in the White House, his support among those who identify as part of the MAGA movement has dropped by 8 points.
This is not a collapse, but it is a fissure. When a populist leader—whose entire mandate rests on being the voice of the “forgotten man”—begins to lose the confidence of that very demographic, it signals a dangerous shift in the political landscape.
[Image: President Trump at a campaign rally]
The Numbers: A Crack in the Foundation
The data paints a picture of waning enthusiasm. Overall, the President’s approval rating sits at 42%, with disapproval climbing to 58%. But the real story is inside the numbers.
Among self-identified MAGA supporters, “strong approval” has fallen from 78% in April to 70% today. While still high, an 8-point slide in just eight months among the “true believers” is statistically significant. Furthermore, fewer Republicans are identifying as “MAGA” at all compared to earlier this year.
“The share of people who strongly approve of Trump has dropped over the course of the year, standing at 21% compared to 26% in April.”
The “Silent Tax” of Inflation
The culprit is not ideology, but economics. The poll indicates that both Republicans and MAGA supporters are increasingly likely to say their personal finances are worse today than they were a year ago.
This is the “populist bargain” coming due. Populism thrives on the promise of protection—protecting jobs, protecting borders, and protecting purchasing power. When the cost of living continues to rise, that bargain is broken. Inflation acts as a regressive tax that hits the working-class base the hardest, turning the “forgotten man” into the “squeezed man.”
[Image: A shopper looking at high prices in a grocery store]
The Political Consequence
Why does this matter constitutionally? Because presidential power flows from political capital. A President with an energized, unshakeable base can pressure Congress, challenge the courts, and use the “bully pulpit” to force radical change.
If that base softens—if the enthusiasm gap closes—the President’s ability to govern by force of will diminishes. With 64% of Americans saying the country is on the “wrong track,” the administration is entering a precarious danger zone. History shows that while culture wars can win elections, it is the economy that sustains presidencies. If the President cannot reverse the perception of financial decline, the “MAGA” movement may find itself shrinking not because of a change of heart, but because of a lack of funds.