The polls have officially closed in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and a nervous nation is watching. Tonight’s off-year elections in Virginia and New Jersey are the first major electoral test of President Donald Trump’s second term.
These state-level races are being anxiously monitored as a national bellwether, offering the first concrete data on the American mood, the strength of the Democratic opposition, and the impact of the President’s agenda ahead of the crucial 2026 midterm elections.
While the votes are still being counted, preliminary exit polls are already painting a complicated picture, suggesting a majority of voters in these key contests disapprove of the President’s job performance.
At a Glance: The 2025 Election Night
- What’s Happening: Polls have closed in Virginia for the state’s closely watched governor’s race. Polls in New Jersey close later this evening.
- Why It Matters: These are the first major elections since President Trump’s return to the White House, serving as a national referendum on his administration.
- The Key Races: Virginia Governor (Abigail Spanberger vs. Winsome Earle-Sears), New Jersey Governor (Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Ciattarelli), and a critical redistricting proposition in California.
- The Early Data: Preliminary exit polling suggests President Trump’s disapproval rating is a significant factor for voters in these key states.
- The Constitutional Context: These elections are a powerful exercise in federalism, where state-level issues and national sentiment collide to create a snapshot of the American electorate.
The Virginia Bellwether
Virginia’s race for governor is the marquee contest of the night. The state has a long-standing, peculiar tradition: for decades, it has almost always elected a governor from the party that does not hold the White House.
This year, that historical trend is in direct conflict with the state’s recent political shift. After voting for Joe Biden by 10 points in 2020, Virginia shocked the political establishment by electing Republican Glenn Youngkin as governor in 2021.
Tonight’s race pits Democrat Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer and congresswoman, against Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a former Marine. The race is historic regardless of the outcome: Spanberger would be the state’s first female governor, while Earle-Sears would be the first Black woman governor in U.S. history.
The contest is seen as a test of whether Virginia’s “blue-ish” tint is a permanent feature or if the backlash to a president in power – in this case, Donald Trump – is a stronger political force.
The National Picture: New Jersey and New York
While Virginia is the main event, races in New Jersey and New York City are also providing critical insights.
In New Jersey, incumbent Democratic Governor Mikie Sherrill is facing a challenge from Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who ran a surprisingly close race against the previous governor. This contest will measure Democratic enthusiasm and the GOP’s appeal in a solidly blue state.
In New York City, the mayoral race is on the ballot, and while the Democratic candidate is expected to win, the margins will be closely watched.
This is the first major election of President Donald Trump’s second term, a series of tests both for him and for Democrats trying to decide how to oppose him.
A Constitutional War in California
Perhaps the most consequential long-term issue on any ballot tonight is in California. While not a traditional candidate race, Proposition 50 is a direct, partisan battle over the constitutional power to draw congressional maps.
As we’ve covered, this is a retaliatory move by California Democrats to counter the new Republican-drawn maps in Texas. If it passes, it would allow the Democratic-controlled legislature to override the state’s independent redistricting commission.
This is a naked power play – an “arms race” of gerrymandering. It represents a significant battle over the Elections Clause of the Constitution (Article I, Section 4), which gives state legislatures the primary power to set the “Manner of holding Elections” – a power California voters had previously chosen to give to an independent commission.
What We’re Watching Tonight
As the results from Virginia and New Jersey begin to roll in, political analysts will be looking for answers to several key questions.
Will the high disapproval for President Trump noted in exit polls translate into Democratic victories? Or will the Republican base, energized by the administration’s agenda, turn out in force?
This election is the first real data point we have in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms. Tonight’s winners and losers will send the first major signal about the nation’s political trajectory and the balance of power in Washington for the next two years.